Betting On Favourites
Don said picking a trifecta winning bet was a test of skill rather than a game of chance. Those Top 6 Favourites I’ve spent years trying to beat the TAB and bookies. Backing big favorites is a very popular strategy among soccer bettors. It’s incredibly straightforward, and it’s likely to return plenty of winners. These are two big advantages that bettors typically focus on. But is this strategy TOO straightforward?
This horse racing system simply works by placing the same stakes ( i.e. £10 on each selection ) but it also has some rules, which are pretty straight forward to understand.
The amount of selections you bet on this horse racing system is determined by the odds of the favorite, I have placed a table of odds below for you to show how many selections can be bet upon.
All odds below are in decimals and are the odds of the Favourite in any given race.
Odds of Favourite In decimals Bet On First
Between 3.00 & 4.00 2 Horses
Between 4.00 & 5.00 3 Horses
Between 5.00 & 6.00 4 Horses
Between 6.00 & 7.00 5 Horses
Between 7.00 & 8.00 6 Horses
Let’s just imagine that the first race you wanted to have a bet in is the 2.10 @ Ascot. Simply navigate to that particular race at your chosen, betting exchange, bookmaker website or go down to your local bookies and take a look at the odds/prices that you are being offered.
Now for this horse racing system to work, let’s say for arguments sake that the favourite was being offered @ 5.3. Take a look at the above table and look for 5.3, there you will see that you are allowed to bet on the first 4 horses in the betting market i.e. 1st Favourite, 2nd favourite, 3rd favourite and 4th favourite, making a little more sense now??
The same goes for any price that the favourite has within the odds displayed in the table above.
This horse racing system, called “Level Stake” betting, has been around for “Donkey’s” years but not too many people actually do it, simply because the majority of punters are looking for a BIG win with every bet they place and to be honest they lose almost ALL the time.
Selections process for this horse racing system is very easy to do: if in your chosen race the favorite has odds of 3 at Betfair then you are allowed to place your stakes on the favorite and the second favorite in the betting.
If in this horse racing system you placed say £10 on each one, your total outgoings are £20. If the favorite were to win you would receive back £20 in winnings and your £10 stake money as well, so a total of £30.
If the second favorite were to win at odds of 5, then you would receive back £40 plus your £10 stake money back for a total of £50 return.
If you were to select a big race where the favorite was priced up at 7 on Betfair then you are allowed to place your stakes on the first 6 in the betting.
It is a very simple horse racing system, but highly effective and if done properly can make a very nice second income.
I have personally had winning bets of up to 25/1 although these are very few and far between it’s very nice when it happens.
Level Stakes betting can be used with nearly all races, with just a few exceptions which are listed below.
1. Do not bet in “Maiden” races. I find these to be very unpredictable and results can vary.
2. NEVER bet in handicap races with over 16 runners, again very unpredictable and there are always much better races to bet in.
3. Never bet in “Apprentice” races, although there are some pretty good apprentice jockeys around you WANT a pro jockey that knows exactly what it takes to win a race.
Another variation of the above horse racing system is to MISS OUT the favourite and use the second favourite as your stating point. This enables you to add more selections and get bigger priced winners.
If you copy how I make my selections below then you will be quids in week after week.
If you decide to place your level stake bets with the favourite included, then this horse racing system is straight forward enough as ANY race that meets the above criteria is fair game but if you wanted to narrow your search down and just find between 2 & 4 races per day to play in, then just copy the following to achieve a VERY high strike rate.
You will need any “run of the mill” newspaper ( I prefer “The Sun” ) that has racing pages in its sporting section.
Plus you will need to register yourself at the http://www.racingpost.co.uk website if you haven’t done already then go do it now, it doesn’t cost anything.
On racing day, to apply this horse racing system simply log onto the racing post website and go through ALL of that days racing, you must mark off ( in your newspaper ) the selection that the racing post gives as its most likely winner.
When you have done that you then look at what your newspaper’s two tipsters go for in that particular race. If ALL 3 ( 2 X newspaper tipsters plus racing post) select the same horse then that COULD be a definite bet. Then simply do this with the newspaper for ALL the races of the day. Don’t be put off at all, it takes about 10 minutes to do, not a lot of time for a horse racing system that could change your financial future.
Once you have done that you need to go to Betfair and simply check the odds for the horse that ALL 3 tipsters have given. If the odds are acceptable with the odds in the table then you have a definite bet and you stake on however many horses that the odds in the grid tell you to.
The other variation of this horse racing system is where you miss out the favourite all together and the selection process for this is much simple and quicker.
Simply miss out all the “Danger” races as described on the previous page then try to find races that have between 12 & 16 runners, especially handicap races because in handicap races horses are allotted different weights to carry, which in effect gives ALL horses the same chance of winning.
Then all you need to do for this horse racing system to work is to get the odds for the SECOND favourite and place your stake money down on as many selections as the table allows you to.
Now you know how easy it is to make your selections, you will now need to know how to make best use of your betting bank.
We will take a £1000 betting bank as an example but you can start with however much you can afford, this horse racing system works for everybody!
Simply divide your betting bank by 100, so for a £1000 bank this figure is £10. So £10 is the amount you should place on your first ever race.
Let’s now say that in your first race you can bet on the first 4 horses, you divide your first bet of £10 by 4, which equals £2.50, so £2.50 is the stake money that you place on the first 4 selections in your first race.
I can just hear you say “Hey, staking a mere £2.50 on a horse, this horse racing system is not going to make me rich!!”
Well, its not and is not meant to either, yet! You should look at this as a long term venture and protect your betting bank as best you can. Dividing your betting bank by 100 gives you 100 losing bets before you go bust and that just is not going to happen.
In the £2.50 example above if the favourite wins then you will win a level stake profit of £2.50 BUT if the favourite loses and an 8/1 shot wins, you will then pick up a nice £12.50 profit.
Then as the days go by your betting bank increases and then so does your initial stake money and soon instead of placing £2.50 on each horse you will find yourself placing £22.50 on each horse, I can see how you start enjoying this horse racing system now!
ABOUT THE AUTHOR: John Anthony is a recognized authority in the PRO gambling world. His worldwide famous Horse Racing System, the Sure2Profit Calculator PRO 1.8, has helped over 1,288 people making up to ?80,000 per year on Tax FREE profits.
Find out how to become one of them here:http://www.sure2profit.com/software.htm
Frustrating, nerve-wracking and ultimately valueless. These are the adjectives that are often used to describe the process of backing favourites in horse racing.
The average punter doesn’t usually choose a favourite simply because it is at the top of the betting list, however, the horse with the best recent form or is on a highly favourable handicap mark is usually on the punter’s agenda when selecting.
Therefore, I'm going to take this opportunity to explain some of the best ways to include favourites in your betting plans and in some cases how to avoid betting on the favourite at all! The first strategy I'm going to mention is a system involving forecasts which if followed patiently can produce some useful profits.
THE STRAIGHT FORECAST OPTION
This is one strategy that can be employed on race fields with around 9 runners or less. Simply choose the favourite to beat every other horse in the field covering every straight forecast scenario. In other words, in a race involving 6 runners, a total of 5 straight forecast bets are placed. However, in order for this system to be profitable, the SP of the favourite has to be around 2/1 or better and the returns are obviously improved if the SP of the second horse is high.
This system should be avoided on certain types of races and meetings. The type of race which the punter should aim for will be non-handicaps considering the percentage of favourites winning handicaps is low. High profile meetings such as The Cheltenham Festival, Royal Ascot and The Aintree Grand National Meeting should also be avoided as the races during these meetings are ultra-competitive with few favourites coming in.
At the time of writing, the meeting at Musselburgh on Monday 3rd December 2018 produced 5 winning favourites.Although two races produced second placed horses with low prices, two of the results of second place contained SP’s of 10/1 and 22/1. This would have produced a great return overall. However, this is by no means a regular scenario. Nevertheless, it pays to employ this strategy on minor meetings held at the early part of the week whereby favourites are more likely to oblige and fields are much smaller than races held towards the busy weekend period.
BETTING ON FAVOURITES AT THE CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL
Punters dream or nightmare? The Cheltenham Festival held in the middle of March every year is now without doubt the horse racing betting pinnacle of the year. On average, around £300 million worth of bets are placed on this meeting. It’s a staggering figure. The bookmaking industry places the same kind of emphasis on this meeting that compares with the high street reliance on sales at Christmas. It’s massive.
However, for the punters it’s a bewildering maze of large field handicaps, overhyped horses and dozens of firms trying to grab your attention with a myriad of offers and promotions. For favourite backers, it’s a disaster waiting to happen. Many horses who have excelled at tracks up and down the country have often been severely undone by the unique characteristics of The Cheltenham Festival.
The meeting attracts the best chasers and hurdlers in Ireland and UK: it’s mighty competitive. The course itself is challenging with the numerous undulations, stiff fences and perilous uphill finish.
Therefore, the best policy is to concentrate on a handful of races that have produced a regular winning favourite down the years. The following races are the best ones to pounce on:
The Arkle Chase, Tuesday
This is the 2 mile novice steeple chase championship decider and although the quality of jumping can be inconsistent at best, the race is an excellent event for favourite backers. Out of the last seven renewals, six of the last seven winners have been favourites, although most of them have been odds on with the one exception being Western Warhorse who won at odds of 33/1 in 2014.
The Champion Chase, Wednesday
This race being the championship decider for 2 mile seniors is actually not a great race for favourites but at the same time it hardly produces any shocks. 33 out of the last 34 runnings have not been priced higher than 11/1. Not only that, the race usually goes to the first two in the betting.
The Mares Hurdle, Tuesday
Another great race for favourites whereby eight of the last 10 winners were sent off either first or second favourite.
ODDS ON FAVOURITES
The most common asked question is whether odds on favourites should be backed in the first place. That depends on a number of factors. As a rule of thumb, I would avoid betting odds on in a large field, especially in a national hunt chase field. So many things can go wrong such as decent horses being brought down by other horses falling or quite simply the odds on favourite runs a below par race and there are plenty of others who could exploit it.
Also, if a horse is odds on in a small field and the market suggests a match (a race between two horses with similar form and ability) then this should also be avoided. The win percentage statistics are not great for odds on: usually around 59%.
The only time to bet odds on is if the favourite really has no worthy opposition or as part of an accumulator, such as a Yankee or Lucky 15, where the win can have more far reaching value.
BANKERS
The necessity bet for all favourite backers especially during high profile meetings such as The Cheltenham Festival and Royal Ascot. The banker bet centres around one horse which looks to be the most likely favourite to win during a meeting. The key information is the amount of the stake. This is always the largest bet of the week whereby the returns will cover any losses incurred by other lost bets. The challenge of the bet is deciding which horse fits the credentials of banker.
Ideally, you want to be looking at a race where the potential banker has extremely weak rivals to a point where it will be a major shock if the banker loses. We did all right this year by selecting three successful bankers for the 2018 Cheltenham Festival! The timing of the bet can be crucial. It is nearly always best to leave the placing of the bet as late as possible in case of a change in the going or last minute negative reports registered by the trainer or from elsewhere.
There have been some infamous banker “sinkers” in recent years including Douvan’s flop in the Champion Chase at the 2017 Cheltenham Festival. Caution and careful scrutiny of the press is therefore important.
TRAINERS WITH GOOD RECORDS ON FAVOURITES
The key factor for following trainers is pinpointing where they gain the winners rather than what or how many. For example, it pays to follow the National Hunt trainer Paul Nicholls at West Country tracks such as Exeter, Wincanton and Taunton.
The trainer, based at nearby Ditcheat in Somerset, often strategically pinpoints particular races for his up and coming young hurdlers and chasers.
Nicky Henderson has a preference for Newbury as he believes this track presents the best ground for his chasers.
RACES TO AVOID
The All Weather
Generally, these races should be avoided as the class and ability of such horses who run here are way below what would be seen on the standard race tracks. The winning percentage rate for favourites on all weather tracks stands at roughly a paltry 36%. However, there are some statistics to focus on.
The percentage of winning favourites differs when the race distance is taken into account as the record for favourite winners over 5-7f races give a much greater return. Additionally, with a digger deep into the statistics bank, it pays to back favourites in Class 2 races at 5-7f races as this has produced a profit of around + 34.84 based on a £1 unit stake system.
HANDICAPS
Handicaps are a notoriously tricky affair. All entries to a handicap are systematically weighted so that all horses technically should finish in a dead heat but of course this is never the case. Therefore the results are very challenging to predict as horses may not run to form, horses may be on the downgrade (and therefore produce a better run that previous form may suggest) or upgrade and possibly struggle in higher rated company.
The favourite may come from any one of these scenarios and the form is therefore very tricky to gauge. However, the key information with backing favourites is to establish whether the handicapper has allotted a mark that is below what the current ability of the horse is. This is where the term “well handicapped” originates from. Keeping an eye on the market is also a wise option.
If one horse is being consistently backed in favouritism then this is a positive sign of course. Nevertheless, the statistics for backing favourites in handicaps is not exactly eye-catching (around 25%) so with everything taken into account, it’s probably wise to avoid favourites if possible.
“FALSE FAVOURITES”
Bookmakers are keen to exploit those who regularly back favourites therefore it’s not unlikely that firms will install favouritism on horses who don’t entirely fit the bill. This is known as creating false favourites. This is unlikely to occur with a weekend large field due to the larger sums of money being placed on these races. These are more likely to happen in the quieter mid-week fixtures.
The all-weather races have been known to attract false favourites and are usually characterised by horses who have won in the previous five days but have shown no form at all before that.
Horses trained by high profile trainers such as Nicky Henderson for National Hunt or Aiden O’Brien for the flat are often perceived by many punters as false favourites especially those entries having a first run for their trainer. More often than not, horses are installed as favourites simply because the trainer is the most successful in the field.
RECAP
Bet Odd
Although it wouldnt be prudent to make an outright avoidance of backing favourites, it certainly pays to pinpoint those races whereby favourites are less likely to be successful.
Certain all weather races are best avoided and the high profile meetings such as Cheltenham should be carefully scrutinised for the best statistical races for favourites. Backing odds-on favourites is great for accumulators but should be mostly avoided if necessary and look out for those false favourites!
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