Epl Betting 2018 19

Our 2018-19 Premier League betting preview has our list of the best bets you can make for each Premier League team. In the world of soccer betting, there is no rest for the. The 2018-19 Premier League season has completed 21 of 38 weeks and futures have been on the move. Liverpool (-125) are now odds-on favorites to win the EPL title but Man City (+125) are right on their heels. We break down all the title odds.

1. Premier League Betting Odds 2018/19
2. Epl 2018 Schedule
3. Epl Betting 2018 1968

Betting on the Premier League is hard.

To an extent, we’re conned into thinking it’ll be easy by the bookies’ adverts.

You know the ones I mean. Guy is watching a game intently. Guy puts down an instinctive in-play bet. Player scores. Goal wins guy bet. Guy leaps up and celebrates wildly, usually surrounded by ecstatic friends.

Most people’s reality?

Wake up hungover on a Saturday morning. Stare blurry-eyed at your phone screen in bed. Put down too much money on a few bets you’ve thought about for all of two seconds. Lose most, if not all of them, a few hours later. Throw a tantrum. Stick more money in your empty account. Rinse and repeat.

If you follow my football betting tips for the 2018/19 season, I can’t promise you’ll end up like Advert Guy.

What I can promise, however, is that you’ll stop blowing up your account so often, stop getting angry so often, and start using a logical, considered Premier League betting strategy.

Sound good? Then read on.

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In this post, I’m going to give you a comprehensive guide to Premier League betting for the 2018/19 season.

These are the topics we’ll cover:

1) Bet Types
2) Betting Strategy
3) Outright Winner
4) Top Goalscorer
5) Relegation Odds
6) Transfer Betting
7) Choosing a Bookmaker
8) Resources

Let’s get started.

Before we can do any actual wagering, we need to understand our options.

If you’re new to the game and don’t really understand how betting works, or want to brush up on your betting terminology, head over here.

Done? Let’s crack on.

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I’d break all Premier League bets down into three groups: long-term, short-term, and in-play.

1) Long-Term

Bets that are going to play out over the course of the season.

Examples of this, which we’ll cover in detail later, include:

• Outright Winner
• Top Goalscorer
• Relegated Teams

Here’s one of my biggest Premier League betting tips – you don’t have to make these bets before the season starts!

Most people will bet on these three markets before the season begins, then forget about the market entirely. This is a huge mistake.

Let’s say you like Harry Kane for the golden boot. His Premier League top goalscorer odds pre-season will be extremely low. If he doesn’t score in his first six games, then – guess what – the odds will go up (Spoiler Alert: this is the time to bet). If he subsequently bangs in back-to-back hat tricks, and shoots to the top of the scoring charts, the odds will plummet once more.

To repeat – keep checking the odds on these bets throughout the season.

There’s a lot of money to be made on long-term bets. They’re much easier to analyse than short-term or in-play wagers.

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2) Short-Term

Bets that play out over the course of a single game, or a weekend.

Examples include:

• Accumulator
• Anytime Goalscorer
• Over/Under
• Result

There are a near-unlimited of options for short-term bets. A single match will have hundreds of different Premier League betting odds attached to it.

Short-term bets are harder to win than their long-term counterparts, so you want to put much lower stakes on them. They’re high volume bets too – you’ll put plenty down, and therefore lose plenty of individual wagers.

Overall though, if you follow a strategy (and my Premier League betting tips, of course), you should win more than you lose, and make a net profit.

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3) In-Play

Bets that you make whilst a match is ongoing.

(These are the ones that Advert Guy always wins).

Many markets overlap with short-term bets, but popular in-play options include:

• Result
• Correct Score
• Next Team to Score

My personal opinion of in-play wagering is that it’s fun, but I’d never make it the backbone of my betting.

If you’re watching a game closely, however, and you feel confident in your analysis, and you’re keeping an eye on the relevant odds, then you can find some excellent value in in-play betting.

Finally, many people (including myself) like to do in-play betting when they’re out and about. In an establishment which serves alcoholic beverages, perhaps. If that sounds like fun, make sure your bookie has a reliable, feature-packed mobile app. You can easily find out by checking reviews on the App Store/Google Play to get impartial users’ thoughts.

Now that we’ve established the three main types of bets, let’s talk strategy.

This section is broken down into five smaller parts:

1) Understanding Odds
2) Scaling Your Bets
3) Finding Value
4) Eye Test vs Stats
5) Accumulators

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1) Understanding Odds

For reference, I use the fractional format for Premier League odds. Decimal odds are probably easier to understand, and are more popular worldwide. I simply use fractional odds because… that’s what we do in the UK!

The common conception of EPL betting odds is that they simply reflect the chances of something happening. In reality, this is only one of three factors which bookies consider when setting the odds:

1) Probability

It’s not the only factor, but it does remain the basic, most important one.

Quite simply, how likely is something to happen?

2) Risk Exposure

Pragmatically, this is the biggest priority for bookies. Yes, they want to get as many bets as possible, but more important is that they avoid any big financial blow-ups by misjudging a market.

This is one of the reasons why you see odds shifting, particularly as we move closer to kickoff. If loads of people are betting on Outcome A, bookies will make Outcome B more appealing. They thus invite more action on Outcome B, and balance out their exposure.

3) Inviting Action

Bookies need wagers, obviously, and they want to get as much betting volume as possible, without taking unnecessary risks.

Sometimes, as mentioned, too many people are betting one side, so that needs to be balanced out. Other times, not enough people are taking a bet. Bookies will then make the odds more attractive to spur some action.

So, when you’re looking at the odds for a market you like, try to work out how the bookies arrived at them.

Are they based purely on probability, are most bettors taking one market, or is a market so unappealing that the bookies are trying to generate action themselves?

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2) Finding Value

Once you know how the bookies arrive at their odds (see above), you can start to find value.

In particular, look for bets where – objectively and logically – there’s a 50% chance of something happening.

Let’s take an over/under of 2.5 as an example. Any given game can go over or under 2.5 goals – that’s why it’s the classic marker.

Often, particularly when two defensive teams meet, the market will massively skew one way. Under 2.5 goals might become 1/2, and the odds on the over will lengthen to try and promote action.

In circumstances like this, you can find good value in betting against the action. You might not even think our example game will be high scoring yourself, but there’s value in taking the over, because the odds have been skewed.

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3) Scale Your Bets

Don’t simply have a flat stake – £2 per bet, for example. You need to significantly scale your bets depending on how likely they are to happen.

On a long shot bet, like an accumulator, stick 50p down instead. On that same weekend, if you like Manchester City to beat Everton, put down £1.50. You’ve still spent £2 overall, but you’ve spent it in a much smarter way. You’ve allocated more money to the bet that’s far likelier to come off.

Scaling your stakes is crucial for long term gain.

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4) The Eye Test or Stats?

Should you place more emphasis on cold hard facts, or on actually watching the games? It’s a classic, jocks versus geeks story.

It’s also one that’s still playing out in the wider football media. Look at the mockery which Expected Goals got from established pundits when it was introduced. In reality, xG is an extremely useful stat. It’s just badly named.

To gamble successfully, you really need a mixture of the two. Stats are very handy, particularly over the long haul, but they don’t tell the whole picture. Their biggest flaw is an inability to incorporate the emotion of the game.

Take the Man City vs Man Utd derby from April 2018, for example.

City were at home. They were cantering to the title, and had won five games on the bounce, including back-to-back victories over Arsenal and Chelsea. They were playing a full strength side. All the stats suggested they should win, and accordingly they were 17/20 favourites (Man Utd were 3/1 underdogs, per Odds Portal).

If you watched their midweek Champions League game against Liverpool, however, you knew this team were reeling mentally. They had been hailed as the best team in Europe all season… and got demolished 3-0 by the 4th-best team in their own league.

What happened against Man Utd? They went 2-0 up, then suffered a wholly predictable mental collapse, and lost 3-2.

Manchester City 2-3 Manchester United (2018). #MUFC 😍 pic.twitter.com/X8wAYkDbgd

— Man Utd Updates (@utds_updates) July 6, 2018

In short, you can’t rely purely on stats. Don’t try to simply bet on what’s more mathematically likely to happen. The emotion of the game – the human side of football – needs to be accounted for. The only way to understand that? Watching the games.

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5) Accumulators

The accumulator is the most famous bet in football. Everyone loves a good acca at the weekend.

They’re fun, but that’s all they’re really good for. Don’t be seduced by your mate’s story, about a guy who knew a guy who won £500 on a 14 team accumulator.

Place accas, sure, but keep your stakes for them extremely low.

Also, look to branch outside of the Premiership odds. Incorporating big teams from around Europe who win the vast majority of their games – PSG, Bayern Munich and Juventus, in particular – is a great way to expand your acca, and boost your odds.

Personally, I like to run two accumulators per weekend. One is a long shot acca, which will have at least two selections I’m unsure about. The other is a safer acca, where I collect five or so big favourites from around Europe, usually for odds of around 5/1.

Normally, this is a pretty fun bet to make. This year, according to the bookies, there’s only one true contender for the Premier League crown.

Here are the Premier League outright odds, per William Hill:

There can’t have been many bigger favourites in the Premier League era than this Manchester City team.

The problem, for gamblers, is that it’s hard to disagree with the bookies on this one. Man City were dominant last year, haven’t lost any impactful players (no offence, Yaya), and have added the PFA Player of the Year from 2015-16 in Riyad Mahrez.

The odds on Man City to win the Premier League outright aren’t good, obviously, but they’re probably worth taking. Put a relatively large stake on it, and you’ll still get a decent return.

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Regarding the rest of the top six, I agree with the bookies’ order of Premier League winner odds.

After their incredible transfer window, Liverpool look the strongest challengers to City. Their Premier League title odds would need to be greater than 4/1 for me to really consider them, though.

Manchester United finished second last year, but every man and his dog is expecting Mourinho to blow up this year, lose the squad, and get the sack. Even at 7/1, I’m not interested in their Premiership winner odds.

Chelsea arguably represent the best value, at 14/1. They’re only one year removed from winning the title, Jorginho could be a transformative signing (see my analysis here), and new coach Maurizio Sarri pushed a dominant Juve team to the brink in Serie A last season. I wouldn’t bet on them, however, unless they keep hold of their stars, and sort out the striking situation.

Tottenham have been knocking on the door throughout the Pochettino era, and their Premiership outright odds of 14/1 are inviting. I just don’t see why they would do it this year, though, when they haven’t managed to in all the other years.

Finally, the odds on Arsenal winning the league are a massive 25/1. I’ll probably put a small stake on that… but that’s entirely because I’m an Arsenal fan. I think Emery has a big, positive impact this season, but we’re not winning the league.

Golden Boot? Come here to daddy 😂 pic.twitter.com/GasYbIerEm

— Mohamed Salah (@MoSalah) May 13, 2018

Top goalscorer looks a much funner bet than title winner this year. Whilst there is a clear favourite, he’s hardly nailed-on to win it.

Here are the Premier League Golden Boot odds, per William Hill:

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Kane is the safest bet. In the past three seasons, he’s scored 25, 29 and 30 goals. He won the Golden Boot in two out of those three seasons, and it took an otherworldy effort from Salah last year to beat him.

Everyone expects Salah to drop off from last year, when he broke the Premier League single season goals record with 32. Even if he does, and scores five fewer goals, say, he’d still be right in the mix for the Golden Boot. He remains part of an explosive attacking team, which has strengthened this summer.

Aubameyang more than lived up to expectations after coming over last winter, scoring 10 goals in 13 games. At that rate, if he’d played a 36 game season (a fairly standard number of appearances), he’d have finished with 27 goals. Most years, that’d have you challenging for the Golden Boot. 6/1 represents fair odds here.

Lukaku did okay last year, but he was a long way behind the top three in goals per game, only managing 16 in 34 appearances. Mourinho teams don’t tend to be prolific, and I’m not interested in Big Rom, even at 8/1 odds.

Aguero is an incredible player, but I wouldn’t consider betting him for top goalscorer. The most he’s ever scored in an EPL season is 26, and – even if he hit that mark again – I don’t see that being enough to win the Golden Boot in this offence-heavy EPL era. The injuries, and possible rotation with Jesus, worry me too.

Jesus had a solid first full season at Man City, and I think he’ll challenge for the Golden Boot in years to come. I’m not taking him this year, though. Again, rotation with Aguero limits his ceiling, and – despite getting plenty of chances – he only managed 13 goals last season.

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In summary, I like all of the top three options, and will be betting on all of them. Put the biggest wager on Kane, but your stakes on Salah and Aubameyang should still be a decent size.

I wouldn’t consider anyone below that trio.

🗣️ “It is so disappointing and hard to take but this is an incredible Club and one that I truly believe will be back.”

Captain Ryan Shawcross delivers his immediate reaction following relegationhttps://t.co/AxI9HcO1rj#SCFC 🔴⚪️ pic.twitter.com/boEKj5bPo1

— Stoke City FC (@stokecity) May 5, 2018

This is a terrible bet from a karma perspective, and it feels a little wrong to want a team to be relegated (except for Stoke last season, of course).

If neither of those things bother you, though, then here are William Hill’s betting odds for Premier League relegation!

(The next team on the list is Burnley, at 7/2. I wouldn’t dream of taking them, but that’s pretty interesting.)

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Cardiff had a solid season, finishing 2nd in the Championship, hitting 90 points, and finishing with a +30 goal difference. And yet, everyone seems to have them penciled in for the drop.

They haven’t exactly splurged in the transfer market, bringing in four players – all from the Championship – for a combined £27 million. Neil Warnock is an entertaining interviewee, but doesn’t inspire confidence as a manager.

I wouldn’t call Cardiff a certainty for the drop, but their status as favourites is justified.

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I fear for Huddersfield.

David Wagner did well to keep them up last year. Pragmatically speaking, however, this only happened because the teams below them were so apocalyptically awful.

They’ve spent well for their size this summer, but their biggest problem last season was a lack of goals (only 28 all season, joint worst in the Prem), and I can’t see Adama Diakhaby – who managed 2 goals in 22 appearances for Monaco last year – turning that around.

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Fulham having the third lowest Premiership relegation odds was a shock for me. They were excellent in the second half of last season, are adding genuine quality in Jean Michael Seri and Alfie Mawson, and have brought Mitrovic in permanently.

I’d be highly surprised if Fulham got relegated, and wouldn’t consider this bet.

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I don’t see Watford going down either. Despite a(nother) turbulent season, they finished 8 points clear of the drop. They’ve got a decent squad, and I’d expect them to reinvest the Richarlison millions in one or two high quality players.

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Brighton are another team I like, but fear for. Chris Hughton is a good manager, but they clearly overachieved last season. To their credit, they’ve spent well this window, and I hope they stick around. Reluctantly, however, I’d make them my third pick to go down.

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To summarise, I’m taking Cardiff, Huddersfield and Brighton to go down. Cardiff are my favourite bet of the three by some distance, even at middling Premier League relegation odds.

Remember, this is a great bet to keep an eye on as the season goes along, and the odds change. If one of these three teams starts off hot, their odds will lengthen. In that scenario, I recommend jumping on the bet.

Looking for dark horses?

Newcastle (5/1) have once again had a terrible transfer window, and love a good relegation.

Crystal Palace (5/1) surely won’t repeat their stunning form from last season, and have lost several key players. If their #talisman Zaha leaves, jump on them immediately.

Your new number 26!@Mahrez22 💙 #welcomeriyadpic.twitter.com/g1UMciVY4P

— Manchester City (@ManCity) July 10, 2018

Despite Premier League transfer odds being talked about a lot on places like Sky Sports News, transfer betting isn’t really a big deal for gamblers.

The odds are fun to follow, simply as a football fan, but I wouldn’t really recommend betting big money on transfers.

Actual games are unpredictable, which helps to level the playing field between punters and bookies. With transfers, however, you have to assume the bookie has some form of inside information on where a player will go, or whether they’re going to move at all.

At the time of writing, for example, Luka Modric to Inter Milan is being pushed by the media as close to a done deal. William Hill have him as 1/10 to stay at Real Madrid. Hmm.

If you really want to, then go ahead and shell out a few quid on transfer betting. I would never recommend putting down any big stakes on it, though.

There are a hell of a lot of bookies out there, as you may have noticed, but it’s worth putting the time in to finding the right one for you.

Here are a few tips on picking a bookie:

• Ignore the Adverts

If a bookie has memorable, eye-catching adverts, that means they’ve got a good marketing department.

It does not mean they’re any good for actual betting.

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• Don’t Overrate the Welcome Offer

Welcome offers are nice, but they’re not the be-all end-all.

They’ll typically only last for a few days, or a single bet. You want a bookie you can be happy with for months, even years to come.

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• Do Look at Ongoing Offers

Ongoing promotions are much more important than welcome offers. They do change over time, sure, but if a bookie has good offers now, the chances are they will in the future too.

The best offers give you some insurance on your wagers. Some give you your stake back if one selection in an accumulator fails. Others return your stake if you bet on a team to win, and the game finishes 0-0.

Other good offers to look for are profit boosts. Some bookies, like William Hill, let you use one per day. Others, like LeoVegas Sport, give you four per week, but at bigger percentages.

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• Experiment

There’s absolutely nothing to stop you signing up with a bookie, sticking a tenner in (usually the minimum deposit), using the signup offer, then moving onto the next one if your money runs out.

You could easily do this with four or five bookies, and simply see which one you like the most.

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• Read Up On the App

The quality of a bookie’s mobile app is paramount nowadays, with on-the-go betting so popular.

You won’t usually be able to try the app yourself without opening an account, so read plenty of reviews (including those on the App Store and Google Play) to gauge how good the app is. Reliability (i.e. the app not crashing every five minutes) is the main thing to look for.

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Personally, I use William Hill.

They don’t give the most spectacular odds, but they’ve got a great mobile app, I like the daily profit boosts, and they’re just generally easy to use all-round.

I’ve used bet365 in the past too, and they also receive the highly sought-after Joe Halliday Seal of Approval.

You don’t need to bet on the Premier League alone, and I wouldn’t recommend doing so. The internet’s a big place, and – even if most of them are rubbish – there are plenty of sites out there offering Premier League bet tips.

There’s no exact science to working out which sites are full of crap. As a football fan yourself, however, you can probably work out intuitively whether a writer:

A) Actually watches the games
B) Actually understands the games
C) Actually understands betting

As a general rule of thumb, I’ve found that betting articles on massive, all-inclusive football websites – I won’t name any names, but you can probably think of a couple – are poor. They’re just there to tick the “Premier League betting tips” box, and haven’t had much thought put into them.

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So, what betting resources should you use?

Well, as I mentioned earlier, a lot of betting comes down to understanding the game. You can’t watch every game yourself, but you can read up on all the major teams.

A great way to do so is by checking Reddit Soccer regularly, and the sub-Reddits for individual teams. You get views directly from fans, who watch their teams week-in and week-out. This gives you a great, genuine view of the mindset surrounding that team, and the players in it.

There are, of course, betting-specific websites you should check regularly too.

Premier League Betting Odds 2018/19

BetStudy is a very useful one. They give statistical probabilities for match results and over/unders. They also have stats for every major game, including the number of times a team – home or away – has hit the over, hit the “both teams to score”, and so on.

BetExplorer is another excellent resource. Not only does it also give statistics-based predictions; it also shows you the odds movement on a particular market. This gives you a big advantage in understanding the odds via the price action, as discussed in the “Betting Strategy” section above.

Oddschecker has become pretty famous in recent years, and rightly so. It collects the odds for every match and market from all the major bookies, and lays them out on a single screen so that you can compare them.

If you’ve got accounts with a few different bookies, this helps you decide who to place a specific bet with. If you’re looking for a new bookie, it gives you a good idea of who tends to dish out the best EPL odds.

Last, but certainly not least, we have… Full 90 Football! I’ll try to make you cringe as little as possible with this ridiculous self-promotion… but I do watch the games, I do understand betting, and I do use my own betting tips, giving me an incentive to – y’know – actually put some effort in.

Premier League betting is hard… but you can make it easier on yourself.

By following a defined, smart strategy; truly understanding odds and finding value in them; picking the right bookie; using the right resources; and so on, you’ll find your account growing over the course of the season.

As you gain confidence and knowledge, you can start to ramp up the stakes of your bets; and, in theory, your returns.

I’ll do my best to help you in this regard. I’ll be bringing you Premier League betting tips throughout the season, so check our Twitter and Facebook accounts regularly to get those hot off the press.

Epl 2018 Schedule

Thanks for reading, everybody!

Defending champions Manchester City will bid to do what no team has managed since Manchester rivals United a decade ago – defend their Premier League title.

Pep Guardiola’s side are odds-on favourites to win the title for the second consecutive year after their record-breaking feats in 2017/18, after the Centurions finished 19 points clear of second-placed United.

With Chelsea appointing Maurizio Sarri as manager, Arsenal turning to Unai Emery for the new season, and Liverpool splashing the cash, however, their rivals have been busy trying to close the gap.

Epl Betting 2018 1968

And it’s not just betting on the winners of the 2018/19 Premier League that can earn you money, either, with multiple outright markets available on the world’s biggest league.

Mohamed Salah will look to beat Harry Kane to the Golden Boot for a second consecutive season, for example.

There is also the intriguing question of how Wolves and Fulham will do on their return to the top flight, having impressed in the Championship last season and signed some big-name players this summer.

Want to know how to maximise your chances of profiting from betting on Premier League outright markets this season? Read on for our 2018/19 Premier League betting guide.